Discover more from The Merchant Life
The Merchant Life - Volume 45
Place Your Bets.
Hello Subscribers - We are working on a transition away from Substack and building a refreshed website for Retail Strategy Group.
While that’s in progress, we have a short edition of the newsletter and an invitation to a unique growth experience.
If I Were A Betting Man…
Consider the following from the Managing Director of Zacks Investment Management, Mitch Zacks, in a recent blog post:
“Among buy and sell-side analysts, there’s debate over whether earnings will flip back to positive (year-over-year) in Q3 or Q4 2023. But a broad look at company-level and analyst estimates makes one point fairly clear: companies are positioned to earn more in the second half of the year. The question is how much more, and whether or not those earnings meet or beat expectations.”
That sounds encouraging.
Moreover, if you hone in on the presented data, you find that the Consumer Discretionary category leads the way in YoY earnings for Q2.
Break down Consumer Discretionary even further and discover that Hotels, Restaurants, and Leisure shot up 245%.
(It’s worth noting that Leisure Products dropped by 57%, Textile, Apparel, and Luxury dropped by 27%, and Household Durables dropped by 20%.)
In the WSJ, there is a fresh article entitled “Don’t Bet Against the American Consumer Now.”
“Consumers may not be spending like there is no tomorrow but they are spending like tomorrow is going to be okay.”
We currently reside in the Upper East Side of New York - we see crowds at bars and patios are bustling. Over the weekend, a Ralph’s Coffee stand had a lineup sprawling onto the sidewalk on 5th Ave.
On our flight in August to NYC from Toronto, we flew business class and all seats were full. As were our other business class flights that we took across Europe in the past year - The lakefront restaurants at Lake Como in 2022 were busy, no doubt it’s the same this year.
Even as student loan payments in the US are set to resume on October 1st, which could shift over $100 Billion in spending power, economists remain optimistic about consumer spending.
The bottom line? The consumer is spending.
The question for retail is: Will they spend (enough) with you?
A Unique Growth Experience…and Breakfast.
Join us for an in-person breakfast session where we will discuss:
Why speed to market is really an issue of internal culture.
How brands trip over themselves when trying to accelerate.
Examples of removing the roadblocks.
How all of this leads to profitable growth!
We’ll share fresh insights including the concept of “velocity to market.”
The floor will be opened up for you to discuss and debate too.
Oh, and we’ll provide the breakfast spread.
All of this for $100….which will be donated to the Fashion Scholarship Fund.
How about that for value?
October 6th starting at 7:30 am in New York City (venue TBD).
Sign up here: www.retailstrategygroupevents.com
Retailers don’t feel the same level of optimism. https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/student-loan-repayment-consumers-economy-2218ca25?mod=djemCFO